Red Sox/Padres Talking AGon Trade (UPDATE: Trade done)

[Capn Vivi]

This. Until I see him on a MLB field I hold judgement on him. I've read more scouting reports on this kid than I care to and I would take any of the Royals prospects over him. That's not even a close call.

And his production this past season stands testament to it. Certainly the Padres LOOKED at his stats in AA, don't you think?

[Remember The Alomar]

That certainly doesn't hurt. But the Sox and Yankees don't go out of their way to try to downplay a prospect's status like MacPhail does with the Orioles. Now granted he may think it helps the player, but it doesn't help their trade value.

MacPhail may do so, but I don't think Theo or Cashman go around talking up their prospects to the point of being "over-hyped".

Like I said, prospects of those two organizations seem to get a bit of unwarranted attention--I remember when Lars Anderson was supposed to be the next big thing--but little, if any of their hype comes from being "talked" up by their organizations.

Edit: And when I used the phrase "MacPhail may do so" I simply mean that MacPhail doesn't constantly go around proclaiming the greatness of O's prospects, not that he downplays them in any sense of the word.

[sandman0838]

And his production this past season stands testament to it. Certainly the Padres LOOKED at his stats in AA, don't you think?

That's usually protocol when trading the best hitting in your lineup for someone, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him listed as a top 5 prospect in most rankings behind Trout, Harper, Montero, Teheran for the sole fact of the hype around him.

[Hank Scorpio]

What difference would "hyping" your prospects make when the very people you're dealing with have intimate knowledge of them and what they're capable of???

Zero.

[Stotle]

It's just another way his reserved, conservative manner has hurt the Orioles.

The Red Sox and Yankees hype of their prospects has helped them make deals.

Just look at who the components were of the VMart trade for example and how they've done since that trade...

This is just insane. I know for a fact that this is not how evaluators make recommendations to the FO. No one -- zero evaluators -- look at "hype" coming out of an organization as a part of the equation when submitting a report.

You are flat out making things up.

[waroriole]

Excuse me? I'm sure you have some ridiculous example to support this, so let's hear it.

I don't know what is worse: the Tillman calendar, Buck being in charge, or AM downplays and doesn't hype our prospects enough. Maybe Chaos Lex could make a poll about that.

Say what?!?!

Trea, are you going to respond. We'd sure love to know how AM downplays our prospects.

[Stotle]

Kelly is a product of the Red Sox hype machine and has had his value inflated because of it.

Whenever you hear the talking heads on various MLB shows talk about the Red Sox trading for Gonzalez, Kelly's name always comes up and he's talked about like he's some uber-prospect.

1. Kelly is an incredibly gifted prospect worthy of the highest level of praise.

2. Who gives a **** what Red Sox fans or talking heads on a cable baseball show say about the merits of a prospect? It's the evaluators in the thick of it that determine their value on the actual market. None of them are risking their job taking the advice of fans or talking heads.

[Stotle]

This. Until I see him on a MLB field I hold judgement on him. I've read more scouting reports on this kid than I care to and I would take any of the Royals prospects over him. That's not even a close call.

I'm sure you mean any of the Royals top X prospects, and not just any prospect. And considering the Royals have the best system in baseball right now, that's not exactly a knock on Kelly.

[MrOrange82]

I'm sure you mean any of the Royals top X prospects, and not just any prospect. And considering the Royals have the best system in baseball right now, that's not exactly a knock on Kelly.

4-part request for speculation/opinion: (1) Britton or Kelly? (2) given what you know about the Red Sox's system, IF discussions between the Padres and Sox revolve around minor league players only, who do you think those players might be? (3) could the Orioles match the preceding package? (4) would it be smart or worthwhile, IYO, over the long haul for the Orioles to do so?

[Stotle]

4-part request for speculation/opinion: (1) Britton or Kelly? (2) given what you know about the Red Sox's system, IF discussions between the Padres and Sox revolve around minor league players only, who do you think those players might be? (3) could the Orioles match the preceding package? (4) would it be smart or worthwhile, IYO, over the long haul for the Orioles to do so?

1. Kelly (command); close, though.

2. Impossible to know without knowing the framework for the Padres target package, but Kelly is definitely a part of it. Rizzo may not be a target if SDN wants Blanks at 1B. Maybe Kelly/Iglesias/Fuentes/Drubont. That's almost on par with what ATL gave up for 1.5 years of Teix.

3. On MiL talent alone? No way.

4. No way would it be smart for BAL to give up half that package for one year of AGon.

[MrOrange82]

1. Kelly (command); close, though.

2. Impossible to know without knowing the framework for the Padres target package, but Kelly is definitely a part of it. Rizzo may not be a target if SDN wants Blanks at 1B. Maybe Kelly/Iglesias/Fuentes/Drubont. That's almost on par with what ATL gave up for 1.5 years of Teix.

3. On MiL talent alone? No way.

4. No way would it be smart for BAL to give up half that package for one year of AGon.

Fair enough, and much appreciated.

[Stotle]

Fair enough, and much appreciated.

Note, if BAL could include Machado it would be closer, but the BOS package is pretty advanced in the developmental stage, and the ceiling is still there. I think the Sox would be better off just waiting and signing him in a year. Having Kelly and Iglesias potentially ready to step in in 2012 means two potential low-cost contributors, making salary room for a big spend on Gonzalez and starting to worry about extending someone like Buchholz.

I'd seriously consider putting together a package for Upton if I were BOS, though. Rizzo is expendable if you're interested in signing AGon next year, so you have one piece that hurts very little to lose.z

[Hank Scorpio]

It's pretty obvious that Trea isn't drawing the line between talking head rankings and actual scouts respective abilities to evaluate prospects.

The reality of the situation is that GM's aren't pulling a BA list and then looking at fangraphs, then making their decisions. That's what fans do, buddy. GMs are going to talk to their guys on the ground who have seen these kids play, find out who their guys like, and go off of their reports. Now, in San Diego's case, it'll be a mash of their scouts' opinions as well as all of the existing Boston presence in their front office. San Diego has the luxury of having extra sets of eyes and experience in their corner in this situation.

I'm sure this will get done, but as Stotle eluded to earlier, I'm not sure it's a great idea for Boston. I'd just give it a year, spend the money, and save the prospects.

[SrMeowMeow]

That certainly doesn't hurt. But the Sox and Yankees don't go out of their way to try to downplay a prospect's status like MacPhail does with the Orioles. Now granted he may think it helps the player, but it doesn't help their trade value.

If you can't give an example of this, you should delete your account. That's ludicrous.

[Moose Milligan]

If you can't give an example of this, you should delete your account. That's ludicrous.

Agreed, that was an ignorant statement.